In February, Türkiye stepped up high-level dialogue with the European Union over modernizing the 30-year-old EU–Türkiye Customs Union, and the momentum is real. Trade Minister Ömer Bolat confirmed that 15 of 29 contested sub-issues have already been resolved through compromise. The remaining discussions cover transport quotas, visa mobility for business travel, customs procedures, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and digital transformation — a substantive agenda, not a ceremonial one.
Where the Negotiations Stand
Recent meetings in Brussels and Ankara have been accompanied by technical working sessions on CBAM and customs procedures. The missing piece is the EU Council’s formal authorization to launch negotiations. That step remains politically sensitive for several member states, but it is structurally important for Europe’s industrial and supply-chain strategy.
On February 6, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos in Ankara, and both sides explicitly tied the modernization agenda to competitiveness, economic security, and resilience in the face of shifting global trade flows. No timeline was given, but the sense of urgency came through clearly.
Why EU-Turkey Trade Relations Are Being Reassessed Now
Context helps explain why this is happening at this moment. As the EU expands its trade footprint through agreements with partners like Mercosur and India, Türkiye risks being locked into an outdated framework that amplifies trade shocks rather than cushioning them. Ankara has been consistent in its message: being indirectly exposed to these new EU deals without equivalent market access adjustments is not a sustainable position, and modernization is not optional if the strategic alignment between the two sides is to remain credible.
Parallel bilateral signals point in the same direction. The Greek Prime Minister’s visit to Türkiye struck a constructive tone on trade and security, and the French–Turkish JETCO meeting in Istanbul on February 17 reinforced the emphasis on reciprocal economic cooperation. These visits reflect a gradual recalibration of political risk and economic intent across the region, not simply diplomatic courtesy.
Türkiye’s Strategic Value in Europe’s Industrial Reset
The broader European backdrop makes Türkiye’s position more strategically significant than it might otherwise appear. Germany’s economic slowdown and France’s difficulty reindustrializing expose a real vulnerability at the EU’s core. Energy costs, competitiveness gaps, and geopolitical pressure are collectively reshaping European industrial strategy — and in that equation, Türkiye’s industrial base carries genuine weight. It is geographically close, already integrated through the Customs Union, a NATO ally, and a manufacturing platform with direct connections to Central Asia and the Middle East.
For the EU, reducing dependency on Asian supply chains and managing exposure to US policy volatility requires building up regional industrial capacity, and Türkiye fits that logic more neatly than most alternatives. Beyond simple supply chain diversification, an expanded rules-based production platform in Türkiye gives Europe additional industrial capacity that aligns with EU standards and CBAM requirements while sitting outside both Asian and US jurisdictions. That matters when Washington pursues aggressive or unilateral trade and industrial policies, because it gives European firms a credible nearby option for reallocating manufacturing and logistics without over-reliance on more distant partners.
What This Means for Businesses and Investors
For businesses, the implications are straightforward. If modernization advances — particularly on transport quotas, customs efficiency, and CBAM alignment — trade friction decreases, investment logic strengthens, and supply chains rebalance. Companies with manufacturing or logistics exposure to Europe should be tracking three things in parallel: the timing of an EU Council mandate, the implementation details of CBAM as applied to Turkish exports, and any early easing of transport quotas or business visa arrangements.
The Critical Bottleneck: Watch the EU Council
The high-level talks and technical working groups can smooth out operational frictions, but full modernization still requires a formal negotiation mandate from the EU Council. That authorization decision is the next structural trigger worth watching — and for anyone with exposure to European trade flows, supply chains, or investment in the region, it is the signal that changes the calculus.
Source and links :
- Joint Statement by Turkish Foreign Minister H.E. Hakan Fidan and EU Commissioner for Enlargement H.E. Marta Kos following their Meeting in Ankara
- Türkiye-France JETCO meeting takes place in Istanbul
- Türkiye and Greece Sign MoUs on Investment and Technology at High-Level Cooperation Council